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☆ Super Tuesday may underline Trump’s transformation of the GOP
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-05 | by ( Ron Brownstein | Analysis Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +17 min

His performance so far reflects his success at transforming the Republican Party in his image. The most important message from the primaries is the most straightforward: Trump’s coalition is the dominant faction in the GOP. Like McConnell’s announcement, the choices by GOP elected officials in the primary contest signal their acknowledgement of the party’s direction. The share of GOP elected officials who have endorsed Haley isn’t anywhere near as large as her share of the total vote. But a deeper factor also explains the imbalance in support among GOP elected officials.

Persons: Donald Trump, He’s, Ronald Reagan, Nikki Haley, –, Trump, Reagan, Bob Dole, George W, Bush, Mitt Romney, Whit Ayres, Democrat Grover Cleveland, Republican Benjamin Harrison, ” Ayres, Ayres, Grover Cleveland, ” Chris Wilson, Ron DeSantis, “, ”, Gary Langer, he’s, Kyle Kondik, “ It’s, William Mayer, George H.W, George H.W . Bush, Democrat Al Gore, Haley, Dwight Eisenhower, Sen, Robert Taft, Mitch McConnell, Haley isn’t, Chris Sununu, Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Liz Cheney, Wilson, Mike Johnson, McConnell, Kevin McCarthy, Jennifer Horn, Biden, William Galston, Galston, ’, ‘, Kristen Soltis Anderson, isn’t, Eisenhower, “ Trump, ” Galston, ” Trump, Missouri GOP Sen, Eric Schmitt, wouldn’t, he’d Organizations: CNN, Republican, Republican Party, South Carolina Gov, GOP, Washington, Trump, Veteran GOP, White, Democrat, Democratic, Florida Gov, ”, ABC, University of Virginia’s Center, Politics, Northeastern University, Republican internationalists, Republicans, Chicago Council, Global Affairs, Trump’s GOP, New Hampshire Gov, South, Brookings Institution, Biden, Republican National Committee, Missouri GOP Locations: Sunday’s, Iowa , New Hampshire, South Carolina, Michigan, George H.W ., Southern, Iowa, New Hampshire, Oakland, Washtenaw, Kent, Ukraine, Trump’s, Missouri

Trump, according to aggregates of national opinion polls, holds about a 50-percentage-point lead over her, with Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also in the mix. Trump also has large leads in early Republican nominating states such as Iowa and New Hampshire. The polls show her tied with DeSantis in Iowa and surpassing him in New Hampshire. Should Haley's rise continue, she would likely face a full onslaught of attacks from the Trump campaign, pro-Trump social media influencers, and related super PAC spending groups. A Trump spokesperson did not respond to questions about whether the campaign would soon turn its attention to Haley.

Persons: Nikki Haley, Adrienne Arsht, Mike Segar, Donald Trump, Haley, Kyle Kondik, Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Whit Ayres, Ayres, Joe Biden's, Haley's, Betsy Ankney, Nikki, Olivia Perez, HALEY Trump's, Koch, James Oliphant, Alexandra Ulmer, Ross Colvin, Grant McCool Organizations: South Carolina, Republican, U.S, NBC News, Adrienne, Adrienne Arsht Center, Performing Arts, REUTERS, Rights, Trump, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Florida Governor, DeSantis, TRUMP, Thomson Locations: Miami , Florida, U.S, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, California, Texas, South, Tuscaloosa , Alabama

☆ Time running out for Trump's Republican 2024 rivals as they face off in second debate
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-27 | by ( Tim Reid | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

[1/2] Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump attends a 2024 presidential election campaign event at Sportsman Boats in Summerville, South Carolina, U.S. September 25, 2023. Seven Republican candidates will be on stage for the debate that begins at 9 p.m. Trump's Republican rivals need to change the trajectory with less than four months until voting begins in Iowa, which holds the first Republican nominating contest, the strategists say. DEBATE IS 'MAKE-OR-BREAK' FOR DESANTISMancuso said this week's debate was especially important for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. Once the clear second-place candidate behind Trump, DeSantis has floundered, and some other candidates have closed the gap with him in recent polls.

Persons: Donald Trump, Sam Wolfe, Donald Trump's, Ronald Reagan, Joe Biden, Trump, Biden, John Feehery, Feehery, Mary Anna Mancuso, Mancuso, Lindsey Graham's, DESANTIS Mancuso, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Mike Pence, Tim Scott of, Chris Christie, Doug Burgum, Kyle Kondik, Kondik, Stuart Varney, Tim Reid, Ross Colvin, Howard Goller Organizations: U.S, Republican, Sportsman, REUTERS, Former U.S, Foundation & Institute, Trump, Democratic Party, Florida Governor, Reuters, Former South Carolina, New, North Dakota, University of Virginia Center for Politics, Republican National Committee, Fox Business Network, Univision, Thomson Locations: Summerville , South Carolina, U.S, Former, Simi Valley , California, Wisconsin, Detroit, Iowa, Florida, New Hampshire, South Carolina, COVID, DeSantis, Tim Scott of South Carolina, New Jersey, North

☆ One year out, here’s what we know about how the presidential race will look on Labor Day 2024
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( Ronald Brownstein | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +15 min

CNN —Much remains unknown of course about the presidential general election whose traditional kick-off will come one year from today on Labor Day, 2024. Twenty states have likewise voted for the GOP presidential nominee in all four of those contests. That means 40 of the 50 states, or 80%, have voted the same way in four consecutive presidential elections. In the presidential elections of 2012, 2016 and 2020, though, the states where the margin of victory landed within four points of the national vote total dwindled. Eventually a Democratic choice to write off Florida and Ohio could provide a tactical benefit for the GOP presidential nominee.

Persons: ”, Doug Sosnik, Bill Clinton, Barack Obama’s, Joe Biden’s, Franklin D, Roosevelt, Trump, hasn’t, Obama, Kyle Kondik, Ball, Kondik, Amy Walter, Biden, Crystal Ball, Cook, Trump’s, headwinds, Republican Sen, Ron Johnson, Roy Cooper, Erika Franklin Fowler, “, George W, Bush’s, Hillary Rodham Clinton, Michael Bloomberg, I’ve, Steve Schale, Schale, don’t, it’s, “ Biden, Ben Tulchin, Fowler Organizations: CNN, Labor, White, Democratic, GOP, University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Electoral College, Trump, Democrats, Crystal Ball, New Hampshire, Republican, White House, Biden, Pennsylvania Senate, Democratic Gov, Wesleyan Media Project, Wesleyan University, Electoral, Republicans, ”, Wisconsin, District, New, New York City, Sunshine Locations: Indiana , Iowa , Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Arizona , Georgia, New, dislodging Michigan, Nebraska, Ohio, New York, Minnesota, New Hampshire , Virginia, Oregon, Texas

Trump has long accused it and the U.S. Justice Department of being out to get him. Trump's closest rival for the nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, decried the "weaponization" of federal bureaucracy after Trump's indictment. Haley said Trump had acted recklessly, although she also said the FBI and Justice Department had "lost all credibility with the American people." None of the Republican president campaigns responded to requests for comment about their criticism of federal law enforcement and calls for an overhaul. A spokesman for the Justice Department, which oversees the FBI, declined to comment.

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Kyle Kondik, University of Virginia Center for Politics . Trump, Trump's, Hillary Clinton, James Comey, Clinton, Hunter Biden, Joe Biden, Biden, Christopher Wray, Timothy Naftali, Naftali, Ron DeSantis, Chris Christie, Asa Hutchinson, Nikki Haley, Haley, Bill Bowen, Bowen, Tim Reid, Nathan Layne, Gram Slattery, Ross Colvin, Alistair Bell Organizations: Republicans, Republican, Trump, U.S . Justice Department of, University of Virginia Center for Politics ., Reuters, White, FBI, Justice Department, Democratic, Department, New, South Carolina, Republican National Committee, U.S . Capitol, Thomson Locations: Russia, Florida, New Jersey, Arkansas, Portsmouth , New Hampshire

May 10 (Reuters) - Republican vulnerabilities on abortion policy are on display in Ohio, with the party playing defense against a surge in abortion rights activism that could help President Joe Biden and his Democratic Party in next year's elections. Abortion rights advocates have racked up electoral victories, lifting Democrats along the way, since the Supreme Court struck down the national right to abortion last year. Ohio Republicans passed a six-week state abortion ban in 2019, but that law is blocked while litigation proceeds. In Republican-leaning Kentucky, abortion rights activists are already knocking on doors ahead of November's gubernatorial election, when Democrat Andy Beshear is seeking another term. Senate President Matt Huffman has made clear the measure is aimed at the abortion rights amendment.

☆ Trump's legal troubles are threatening to upend the 2024 GOP race, and he's not even charged
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Kimberly Leonard | Oma Seddiq | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +14 min

Former President Donald Trump faces possible criminal charges as he's running for president. "If it's a circus, there's only one ringmaster and that's Trump," said GOP pollster B.J. Operatives thinking of ways to land punches on Trump say GOP primary candidates could argue that he would lose the general election because of his legal troubles. Political insiders widely concede that a potential indictment — and how Trump responds — could still backfire on GOP challengers and strengthen Trump. While the circumstances surrounding the 2024 primary are uncharted territory, polling shows a cohort of GOP voters has grown weary of Trump and is seeking an alternative.

"I think it shows Biden's support level is pretty soft," said Kyle Kondik, an elections analyst at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. Democratic strategists expressed confidence that the party's voters would enthusiastically support Biden once he announces his run. Biden was the pick for 35% of Democrats and Trump for 43% of Republicans. 2 with 31% of registered Republicans backing him, just 12 percentage points behind Trump. By comparison, only a quarter of registered Republicans said Trump, 76, who was hospitalized with COVID-19 during his presidency, was not fit for the physical demands of the office.

Republicans are favored to win a majority in the House of Representatives in Tuesday's elections, with the Senate rated a toss-up by nonpartisan election forecasters. A crackdown on users impersonating Musk prompted Twitter to suspend comedian Kathy Griffin. Musk also moved his personal residence from California to Texas, where there is no state income tax. In April, Musk said on Twitter he believes that for the platform "to deserve public trust, it must be politically neutral." Federal authorities are investigating Musk over his conduct in acquiring Twitter, the company said in a court filing last month.

The world's richest person, Musk has faced criticism from some groups who believe his absolutist stance on free speech will increase misinformation on Twitter. His tweet to more than 110 million followers on Monday represented the first time the head of a major social media platform explicitly endorsed a U.S. political party. Musk, who frequently comments on U.S. politics, previously said he would vote for Republicans but that he backs moderates of both major political parties. NEW LINE FOR SOCIAL MEDIA EXECSMusk is not alone among social media executives in taking open political stances. Federal authorities are investigating Musk over his conduct in acquiring Twitter, the company said in a court filing last month.

☆ Walmart's PAC has quietly donated nearly $1 million to campaigns ahead of the midterms. While the company has a ''don't rock the boat strategy,' it contributed to 41 election deniers.
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( Ben Tobin | Madison Hall | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +8 min

WALPAC donated almost 50-50 to Democratic and Republican federal candidates for the midterms. Walmart's PAC donated to 41 candidates who denied the 2020 presidential election results, ProPublica found. Of that, about 53% went to Republican candidates, and 47% went to Democrats. Some members of Congress, particularly among Democrats, also reject any corporate PAC contribution — WALPAC or otherwise — as a matter of practice. However, the company did donate a significant amount of money to candidates who voted against certifying the 2020 presidential election results.

☆ How long will it take to know who won in U.S. midterm elections?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-06 | by ( Jason Lange | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Republicans would need to pick up five seats to take a majority in the House and just one to control the Senate. "When it comes to knowing the results, we should move away from talking about Election Day and think instead about election week," said Nathan Gonzales, who publishes the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections. BLUE MIRAGE, RED MIRAGEThe earliest vote tallies will be skewed by how quickly states count mail ballots. States including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin don't allow officials to open the envelopes until Election Day, leading to a possible "red mirage" in which Republican-leaning Election Day ballots are reported earlier, with many Democratic-leaning mail ballots counted later. California typically takes weeks to count all its ballots, in part because it counts ballots postmarked by Election Day even if they arrive days afterward.

☆ Prayers, the pledge of allegiance and culture wars: Inside a Doug Mastriano rally in the final days of his long-shot bid for governor of Pennsylvania
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Oma Seddiq | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +13 min

A Doug Mastriano rally in Bucks County, Pennsylvania, featured praying and wading into culture wars. National and state Republican donors and groups have offered little support to his candidacy. "He's just been there the whole time," a Mastriano voter in Bucks County who only identified himself as Jeremy, told Insider. "You can't get your message out one-on-one to voters," Josh Novotney, a Pennsylvania GOP strategist, told Insider. "It's a different tactic and I pray it works," Joe Vichot, chairman of Lehigh County's GOP, told Insider.

WASHINGTON — One week from Election Day, the race for Senate control remains neck and neck in an unusually volatile political environment, with small margins carrying high stakes for the future of President Joe Biden's legislative agenda and judicial nominees. Kyle Kondik, an election analyst at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said the battle for the Senate looks like a coin-flip. “Polling for the Senate is still real close in a lot of these states.”The Senate is split 50-50, with Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote giving Democrats control. The FiveThirtyEight Senate projection is dead even, giving both Republicans and Democrats 50% chances of winning control. A perception that GOP control would threaten democracy is also motivating liberal-leaning voters.

☆ John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz to face off on the debate stage for the first and only time in the high-stakes battle for Pennsylvania's Senate seat
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-25 | by ( Oma Seddiq | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz will debate for the first and only time on Tuesday night. The Pennsylvania election could determine which party controls the US Senate. Fetterman and Oz are widely expected to discuss their positions on top voter concerns, including inflation and abortion. During the debate, Fetterman will rely on closed captioning to accommodate an auditory processing disorder he developed from the stroke. "On one hand, you could say that Oz is a weaker candidate than Fetterman, although Fetterman is hardly perfect himself," Kondik continued.

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